The horrific events of late have focused the attention of the world on the U.S. stock market and the potential influence it will have on the likelihood of a global recession. As of yesterday’s close, the Dow is more than 10% below its level prior to the terrorist attacks and consumer confidence has collapsed.
While more than a $1 trillion loss in market value was punishing enough, many commentators have expressed concern that the market is still overpriced and that the potential for further declines is large. Simply put, the worry-warts argue that with today’s price/earnings ratio (P/E) still in the low 20s (well above its long-run average of about 15), stocks are overpriced and that corporate earnings are greatly overstated, making the actual P/E dangerously high.
While stocks may continue to fall in the short-run, investors should reject such a negative view.
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